| Cluster based on article | Resource ID |
Title | Brief description of content | Target |
| Conditional probability 9646 |
9525 | The dog ate my homework | Conditional probability - models testing for presence of disease or DNA matching | 13-15, using tree diagrams and 2-way tables to record results and interpret them by considering expected results |
| 16+, introduction to Bayes Theorem | ||||
| Tree diagrams - a complete set of mutually exclusive narratives |
9546 | Which team will win? | Introduction to probability trees (complete set of mutually exclusive narratives) | 11-13, introducing tree diagrams and 2-way tables, and using them to compare what happened experimentally with what we would expect to happen |
| 13-15, combining probabilities, introducing the multiplicaton rule | ||||
| Developing a methodology for analysing problems - fractions and tree diagrams and introducing the multiplication rule 9648 |
9599 | Luigi's Ice Cream Business | Utility of money is non-linear, difference between one-off events and long-term performance, risk perceptions, rare events with potentially very high gains | 14-16, expectation, moving to using fractions on tree diagrams |
| 9598 | To insure or not to insure | Do you look at the expected gain over time of buying/not buying insurance - or focus on the impact of a one-off event, which may not happen? | 13-16, investigating a mathematical model of expectation | |
| Micromorts/microlives | 9611 | Will you live to be 100? | Micromort per event x exposure per year, accumulated over a life-time Difference between accidental (additive) and lifestyle (multiplicative) |
Game, aimed at 13-15 year-olds - play the game, then evaluate it. |
| Absolute and relative risks | 9600 | Numbers in the news | Use health pack for this | |
| Coincidences | Collection of birthday problems | Coincidences which are surprising to the subject, but are not surprising in the general population | ||
| Making predictions | How good are the probabilities? | Scoring predictions, weather forecasting, political forecasting | Quiz - how confident are you that your answer is right? | |
| Sampling 9649 |
9601 | The Wisdom of the Crowds | Estimating the number of sweets in a jar. | 12-14, use of averages, building up a histogram |
| 9685 | How Confident Are You? | Wisdom of the Crowds revisited - using 90% probability estimates | What does it mean to be 90% confident? | |
| 9609 | Capture and Recapture | Estimating the number of badgers in a wood. | 12-14, introduction to sampling techniques, proportional reasoning. | |
| Thinking through a logical argument, enumerating outcomes | Monty hall and Monty Hall revisited |